Two tropical disturbances show signs of increased organization

We are currently monitoring two disturbances to the south and southwest of Hawaii. Neither of these systems have reached tropical cyclone (TC) criteria, but are showing signs of increased organization. 98C to the southwest has a 70% (high) chance of development in 48 hrs. Numerical models show 98C tracking towards the north, and then northwest towards the dateline over the next several days. 97C is a bit more of a concern for us, and has an 80% (high) chance of development to a TC in 48 hrs. Models show deep moisture (loosely associated with this system) moving up towards the Big Island Saturday night and Sunday and may bring a few locally heavy showers across the eastern end of the state. Models show slow and variable movement with 97C over the next several days before moving northeast during the middle of next week. Given this system is not fully formed and models showing varying degrees of 97C’s of distance from the state, we cannot say if there will be any direct impacts to Hawaii.

IR satellite image is from 430pm HST this afternoon.

STAY INFORMED: MAUIWatch will continue to monitor the situation and notify the public if we are placed into a watch or warning. Download the free MAUIWatch APP for critical notifications at



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